Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Iran
  • Georgia
  • Israel
  • Jordan
  • Iraq
  • Oman
  • Kuwait
  • Azerbaijan
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Saudi Arabia
  • Nepal
  • Maldives
  • Tajikistan

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,152,072$ on 2020-12-19

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $53,448$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{160,856.3}{1 + 10^{-0.005 (t - 358.9)}}\) (asimptote \(160,856.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $222,681$ on 2020-12-19

Georgia⮸

Population $3,989,167$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $206,907$ on 2020-12-19

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,055$ on 2020-12-19

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $29,010$ on 2020-12-19

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $372,886$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{371,717.2}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 197.9)}}\) (asimptote \(371,717.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,074$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,727.5}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 202.9)}}\) (asimptote \(3,727.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $24,222$ on 2020-12-19

Jordan⮸

Population $10,203,134$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $272,797$ on 2020-12-19

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,545$ on 2020-12-19

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $30,126$ on 2020-12-19

Iraq⮸

Population $40,222,493$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $583,118$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{609,610.4}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 194.9)}}\) (asimptote \(609,610.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $12,680$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,565.1}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 169.3)}}\) (asimptote \(12,565.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $51,433$ on 2020-12-19

Oman⮸

Population $5,106,626$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $127,019$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{118,848.7}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 145.6)}}\) (asimptote \(118,848.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,483$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,590.4}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 167.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,590.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,527$ on 2020-12-19

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $147,775$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{154,163.7}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 176.0)}}\) (asimptote \(154,163.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $918$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{986.1}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 137.5)}}\) (asimptote \(986.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,216$ on 2020-12-19

Azerbaijan⮸

Population $10,139,177$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $199,127$ on 2020-12-19

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,175$ on 2020-12-19

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $61,490$ on 2020-12-19

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Saudi Arabia recovered 95%
Nepal recovered 81%
Maldives recovered 80%
Jordan recovered 78%
Tajikistan recovered 76%
India recovered 70%
Kyrgyzstan recovered 61%
Bangladesh recovered 51%
Iraq recovered 19%
Iran recovered 14%

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $360,848$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{348,049.4}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 108.4)}}\) (asimptote \(348,049.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,112$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,982.1}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 133.0)}}\) (asimptote \(5,982.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,014$ on 2020-12-19

Nepal⮸

Population $29,136,808$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $253,184$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{297,329.0}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 191.2)}}\) (asimptote \(297,329.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-05-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,777$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,292.9}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 174.3)}}\) (asimptote \(2,292.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,840$ on 2020-12-19

Maldives⮸

Population $540,544$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $13,474$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13,692.1}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 170.6)}}\) (asimptote \(13,692.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $48$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{49.7}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 120.2)}}\) (asimptote \(49.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $548$ on 2020-12-19

Tajikistan⮸

Population $9,537,645$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-30 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $12,923$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,480.5}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 78.8)}}\) (asimptote \(12,480.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-05-02 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $89$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{90.5}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 46.6)}}\) (asimptote \(90.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-30 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $460$ on 2020-12-19